Top 4 Fixture Assessment: Is an Arsenal title challenge that outrageous?

Hello Gooners!

So what do I have for you today?
A match report?    No.
A Scathing report of the infighting that’s going on? No.

Today I am going to simply take a look at what games remain for each of the top 4 teams, how I think they are going to fare and how that potentially effects any possible chance of Arsenal mounting a successful title chase… However very, very unlikely that may be. That said, after assessing the remaining games I was somewhat surprised at the final standings.

The current standings are as such:
1st – Leicester – 66pts
2nd – Spuds – 61pts 
3rd – Arsenal – 55pts (Game in hand) 
4th – Man City – 51pts (Game in hand) 

  • Leicester’s fixtures remaining and prediction:
    Southampton (H) – Win
    Sunderland (A) – Win
    West Ham (H) – Draw
    Swansea – (H) Win
    Man Utd – (A) Lose
    Everton – (H)  Win
    Chelsea – (A) Lose
  • Points – 13 (Total 79 Pts)

Spuds fixtures remaining and prediction:
Liverpool (A) – Draw
Man Utd (H) – Win
Stoke (A) – Draw
West Brom (H) – Win
Chelsea (A) – Draw
Southampton (H) – Win
Newcastle (A) – Win
Points – 15 (Total 76)

Arsenal fixtures remaining and prediction:
Watford (H) – Win
West Ham (A) – Draw
Crystal Palace (H) – Win
West Brom (H) – Win
Sunderland (A) – Win
Norwich (H) – Win
Man City (A) – Win
Aston Villa (H) – Win
Points – 22 (Total 77)

  • Man City fixtures remaining and prediction:
    Bournemouth (A) – Win
    West Brom (H) – Win
    Chelsea (A) – Lose
    Newcastle (A) – Draw
    Stoke (H) – Win
    Southampton (A) – Win
    Arsenal (H) – Lose
    Swansea (A) – Win
    Points – 16  (Total 67)

“Whooptydoo basil… But what does it all mean?”

  • That makes the final standings look like such:
  • 1st – Leicester – 79pts
    2nd – Arsenal – 77pts
    3rd – Spurs – 76pts
    4th – City – 67pts 

So, OK, you need to take the above “Results” and final predicted table with the obvious pinch of salt that comes with predicting the future. If I could predict football results that well I would be sat on a Monaco beach sipping the finest champagne and playing roulette surrounded by playboy models. (Wouldn’t we all?)
I think my point is this –
– A Title challenge is very much still possible… if Arsenal start playing like we know they can. (Also See: End of 2014/15 season and Start of 2015/16 season.)
– Ultimately the chances of actually winning the title is basically none. Arsenal can pull close but ultimately will fall short. (Also see: 2010,11,12 etc. etc.)
–  Leicester are starting to stall but are still dangerous and most likely to take the title… just…
– The Spuds have a nightmare fixture list facing teams that are beginning to hit their stride (in a few cases (a la United, Chelsea) and a tough trip to the Britannia. They also have a couple of banana skins against relegation fighters.
– With regards to Arsenal, we have a rather “Easy” fixture list in comparison against a number of teams that are playing for very little. The final fixture against a potentially already relegated Aston Villa could (potentially) be a very important one if the fixtures go roughly as expected. City are the exception but can their manager motivate them for a big game? The loss to Man Utd suggests otherwise.
– Man City, as above, are at this point as good as managerless right now. They have very little appetite for a scrap and look likely to drop points to unexpected teams.

2 Points off winning the league and ultimately losing out to Leicester seems to be an almost best case scenario looking at the fixtures but of course would be a tragic end to the season that initially promised so, so much. Returning to a trophy-less season once more looks pretty likely right now. But of course, you never know what’s going to happen. (Who would have predicted the disgraceful run of form when we beat Man City before Christmas?)

That’s all from me today. Let me know your thoughts in the comments!

AJ – Gooner.



One thought on “Top 4 Fixture Assessment: Is an Arsenal title challenge that outrageous?

  1. Pingback: Predicting the date of St Totteringham’s Day 2016… If it comes… |

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